ATP Tokyo Day 2 Predictions Including Holger Rune vs Kyrian Jacquet

Day 2 at the Ariake Coliseum brings a comeback, a farewell and a grudge match. Holger Rune plays his first ATP match in almost a year, Kei Nishikori opens what he has said will be the last tournament of his career, and fifth seed Brandon Nakashima meets the one player who keeps beating him.

Holger Rune vs Kyrian Jacquet

Rune ruptured his left Achilles in the Stockholm semifinals last October, had surgery and spent 335 days away. The former world No. 4 is down at No. 188, and this is his first tour-level match since the injury. The early signs are good: playing Davis Cup in Copenhagen this month, he beat Radulov 6-3 6-3 and then came from a set down to beat Grigor Dimitrov.

Jacquet arrives from the best week of his career. The Frenchman reached his first ATP semifinal in Hangzhou, beating third seed Tomás Martín Etcheverry and sixth seed Fabian Marozsán before Andrey Rublev stopped him on Monday. That’s four matches in six days, a flight to Tokyo and a quick turnaround, something to keep an eye on if this goes long.

It’s their first meeting, and the winner could face sixth seed Casper Ruud next. The market has Rune as the favourite despite the long layoff. Our model is a little more confident still.

Prediction: Rune to win.

Kei Nishikori vs Frances Tiafoe

Nishikori announced in May that 2026 would be his final season, and he says goodbye in Tokyo, where he won the title in 2012 and 2014. He’s here on a wildcard, ranked No. 436, and his last match was a loss to Rei Sakamoto in US Open qualifying.

Tiafoe is the second seed and at a career-high No. 8 after a big summer: a final in Cincinnati, then a US Open semifinal that included coming back from two sets down against Alex Michelsen. For the record, Nishikori leads their head-to-head 1-0, from Vienna in 2018.

Tiafoe should get through, but we have it closer than the price suggests. Expect the whole stadium behind Nishikori.

Prediction: Tiafoe to win.

Brandon Nakashima vs Ugo Humbert

On paper this is a seed against an unseeded opponent. Nakashima is up to No. 17, one spot off his career high, and warmed up with a win over Jakub Menšík on his Laver Cup debut. Humbert is No. 32.

The history says otherwise: Humbert has won all three of their tour-level meetings, including one here in Tokyo in 2024. The question is his back. Humbert pulled out of the US Open with a back injury and hasn’t been seen on court since.

This is where we split from the market. It’s a lean, not a strong call, because of the fitness question. If Humbert’s back holds up, this matchup has gone his way every time.

Prediction: Humbert to win.